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Fantasy Outlook: Alvin Kamara

Next up we take an in-depth look at Mr. Alvin Kamara of the New Orleans Saints.  I will be going over how effective he was over the last few years and what is to come going into the 2019 season.  Also to give a reason why he should be in the discussion as the first overall pick in your 2019 draft.

Read Time Skew’s Fantasy Outlook: Alvin Kamara

Going into 2017 of his rookie, Karma was heavily overlooked in draft and he basically went undrafted. Once Adrian Peterson was released, Karma shinned. He was ranked third in fantasy points by the running back position and averaged 18.7 points per game.  He ended the year with 101 targets for the season, which on a per game basis was 6.31 targets and that was second to Michael Thomas.  To add to his craziness, he had over 1500 all-purpose yards and scored 13 TDs.  He truly shocked the fantasy world with his amazing rookie year.

Going into 2018, regression seemed certain from all around the league, even I believed that. Well he basically silenced us pretty quickly as he went to average 25.4 fantasy points per game during the first 4 weeks of the season. Granted Mark Ingram was out for those games but we saw a glimpse of what he could do without Ingram taking second fiddle in this offense. Even with Ingram back in the lineup he still managed to average 17.7 fantasy points per game and finish 4th overall in running back points. 

He also had another 1500 all-purpose yard season with increasing his touchdowns to 18.  There only 16 games they play in season so he basically scored a touchdown every game.

What kind of outlook does 2019 provide? First off, Ingram is no longer with the team after signing with the Ravens this offseason. The replacement they brought in was Latavius Murray to fill that role but he is step down in talent especially in the passing game compared to Ingram. Murray can play fine with opportunity but this is the Kamara show and he will lead the running backs in every stat once again.

Is it possible for Kamara to finish the as number 1 running back in fantasy and be drafted first overall? The answer is yes, just what we have already seen from him. He was first within the team in rezone opportunities with 77 of them, which was 4.8 (targets/attempts) per game. He has finished back-to-back years with 100 targets and the team hasn’t brought anyone to threaten him from doing that again. To add to his amazing receiving skills, in 32 career games, only 4 of those games Kamara had less than 3 receptions. He is just a target machine in a high-octane offense with him and Michael Thomas being the focal points of the offense.

If you are sitting there with the first overall pick, don’t be afraid to draft Kamara with it. He is as safe as they come especially with his high ceiling in the receiving game. He is safer option than Barkley who is in a bad offense; Elliot who is in the middle of a holdout, and McCaffrey who could see a regression with a healthy Cam Newton.  The stats say it all, as Kamara is star in the making and could even see more productive going into an important 2019 season for the Saints and your fantasy teams.

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