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Fantasy stars to avoid at the top of your draft

Fantasy stars to avoid at the top of your draft

As draft season starts to really heat up the first question on all fantasy players mine is who to take in the early rounds especially first. There is of course the can’t miss players Barkley, Kamara, and Hopkins. But there is other superstars who you may want to stay away from in the first round maybe even the second.

Look I am not saying if your in a 12 team league drafting 11th or 12th you shouldn’t take Chubb if he is still there but if you are in the top 5 you may want to think twice.

This is a chart just from a year ago that shows how primary backs carries are declining.

This leads into why I think these backs are to be avoided at the top of your draft.

Nick Chubb

When I say these are guys you should not draft in the top 3 that doesn’t mean they will have bad years they just want be top 10 in overall scoring.

Second year back Nick Chubb did not start as the lead back last year but once Carlos Hyde was traded he excelled. Chubb finish with 996 yards rushing and 10 TDs even though he didn’t play most of the first half of the season. The reason I think his first round ADP is to high isn’t declining skills or early season carries. Its the return of Kareem Hunt and the possibility of hitting a wall late in his first full season. Hunt with all of his issues is an all pro talent. Most teams in this era have at least two sometimes 3 backs that they want to rotate in and out. If Hunt is anywhere near his pro bowl form from just two years ago the Browns will make sure to limit Chubb carries later in the year. Look I know it’s 8 weeks down the line but fantasy leagues are not won in the first 8 weeks of the year.

James Conner

The Steelers come into the season with the Le’Veon Bell and Antonio Brown drama behind them. The replacement for Bell last year was James Conner who had a pro bowl season with 973 yards rushing and 12 TDs, but who has also been plagued by knee and ankle injuries the last two years.

Again, just like the Chubb situation I think the Steelers try to lower his carries as the season goes on. Jaylen Samuel is returning for another season and Benny Snell Jr was drafted this off season. Samuel’s will be used in a lot of two back sets with Conner. Snell has the potential to steal goal line carries being 5’10 224 pounds. Also stated here by The Athletic’s Mark Kaboly who believes Samuels will be a “significant part of the offense”.

Todd Gurley

Here is my Mr. Obvious moment, at least I hope so. Todd Gurley is an all pro talent no doubt about it but with injury concerns he is a player to avoid. The Rams will at all cost try to limit his carries. Through the first part of the season Gurley was on in the MVP conversation putting up all pro stats. Later in the season fatigue and a knee injury cost the Rams games and possibly the Super Bowl. Gurley has a plan to be ready throughout the course of the season, Jones-Drew said. “They want to be sure that they don’t run Todd as much as they did last year and the year before all to where he can’t perform the last two games of the year” That last quote sums up why I think Gurley even if deemed healthy should not be high on your draft board.

Every year there are unexpected studs and duds in fantasy football and this year won’t be any different. The players in this article are ones you want to take an extra look at before you spend that valuable high draft pick.

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Fantasy stars to avoid at the top of your draft

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