DFS Thursday Night PreviewTweet
Football is finally back and the first game of the year is a good one. It features last year surprise team the Chicago Bears hosting the Green Bay Packers. When playing DFS rather its Fan Duel or Draftkings or one of the many other sites it always pays to have an edge. It could be a little known stat, an injury or illness that happens right before kickoff or any other small detail.
With this being a Thursday Night means it is Showdown/MVP night on DFS sites (Unless you do Thursday-Sunday). Lets discuss the best possible lineups for the two major sites and the players making up these lineups.
Captain Pick David Montgomery $12,300
Flex Mitchell Trubisky $11,600
Flex Aaron Jones $9,200
Flex Anthony Miller $6,600
Flex Bears Defense $5,000
The captain pick of course is where you don’t want to take chances. If you make a mistake your already behind the eight ball. By picking Montgomery at $12,300 for your captain pick the ceiling is pretty high for the rookie and you save in the process. The Bears run a lot of two back sets so he should have 15-20 touches. The Packers were one of the worst tackling teams during last year and this preseason. Montgomery was the only player in college football history to force 100 missed tackles in a single season and he did it in back to back seasons.
There is the presence of Tarik Cohen but in a statement from Bears head coach Matt Nagy he thought they used Cohen too much last year. I think there is a reduction in touches for Cohen this year.
Flex positions Packers
By not going with Rodgers in the Captain pick you save over 6,000 dollars. I will do you one better I am not picking Rodgers at all. The Bears had the number one defense last year and are returning 10 of 11 starters. The Bears played 8 man front less than any other team last year so they are willing to sacrifice the run to stop the pass.
For that reason going with Aaron Jones makes sense as the Bears will be focused on stopping Rodgers and Adam. The only competition for touches is Jamaal Williams but he is coming off an injury during the preseason.
Jimmy Graham had a down season last year but with a healthy preseason and a new head coach this could be a turn around year for the former pro bowler. Also with constant pressure on Rodgers he could be the safety net most of the night and comes in at $4,600 dollars which helps you fit in other players.
Flex position Bears
Of course you would love to pair Trubisky with Robinson but with a price tag over $8,000 that is a tough fit. So instead a Trubisky/Miller pairing fits in perfectly. Miller was one of Trubisky favorite targets in the red zone and it would only take a couple of receptions and a TD to justify the pick.
This leaves you with about $5,700 left you could go with a backup running back but I would take the points and go with the Bears defense at $5,000. With Kalil Mack and the number one rated defense you are more than likely getting a few sacks and a turnover in a possible low scoring game.
MVP Mitchell Trubisky $13,500
Flex David Montgomery $12,500
Flex Allen Robinson II $12,500
Flex Cordarrelle Patterson $6,000
Flex Davante Adams $14,500
The format is a little different for Fanduel . You do get 1.5 points just like Draftkings but it doesn’t cost you 1.5 times salary to pick a player for the MVP slot. The price does not change regardless of where you put your players. Since this is the case I put Trubisky in the MVP slot. I think the Bears will have an easier time moving the ball vs the Packers defense than Rodgers does vs the Bears (reason stated above).
Since there is no penalty for adding players to the top spot it is easier to get in higher cost players. Allen Robinson the number one receiever for the Bears, David Montgomery and since you need salary relief and you cant pick defenses Cordarrelle Patterson. With Paterson he is only $6,000 and maybe used in several different position just like in New England last year.
With Davante Adams he will be the number one target for Rodgers where you couldn’t fit him in on Draftkings it is much easier on Fanduel to slot him in. Even against a great defense he will get enough targets to have between 10-15 points.
The elephant in the room is not picking Aaron Rodgers. At his price on the road vs the Bears defense I just see better options at cheaper prices to roster.
With the first game around the corner and money to be made this game has several viable option on each site. FYI keep an eye on IF Trey Burton plays this could effect the number of three wide receiver sets used by the Bears.
DFS Thursday Night PreviewTweet
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