Well its finally time to crown conference champions this weekend and see who the final two teams will be. It’s always exciting to see who shows up in the playoffs whether as a surprise team or a team with a bye that continues to play strong. Both games this weekend should be exciting as both have the line at about a touchdown for the home teams. This means that the scores could stay close. There is also the added appeal that both games are going to be repeats of previous meetings from the season. So, if the games were not important enough there is also the added sense of revenge for both the Chiefs and the Packers heading into these vital games. The matchups are exciting especially when you look at DFS plays for this weekend.
Williams has taken the lead role in the Chiefs offense and it appears that McCoy was not just resting and has lost touches in the backfield. Last week against the Texans he scored three touchdowns and showed the elusiveness and his play out of the backfield as a pass-catcher. I expect that this will continue this week against the Titans. In the first meeting, Williams had over 100 yards from scrimmage and the Chief’s dangerous offense. Although they did lose that last game the volume should be there for Williams, especially if the Chiefs get a big lead in the game, they will want to keep the ball away from the Titans and Henry.
The 49ers rushing attack has been great this year in terms of team totals but it has been hard to trust a single RB week in and week out. Mostert has had the most success in terms of rushing yards and has had some long rushing TDs as well. Coleman missed some time at the beginning of the year with an injury but has looked good since he returned. Last week he scored 3 TDs and was a huge piece of the 49ers winning by also putting up over 100 rushing yards. With Mostert expected to play this week and Breida also healthy this is going to be a full backfield this week. The Packers have a stout rushing defense holding the Seahawks to 39 rushing yards last week and the Vikings to 5 rushing yards in week 16. The 49ers run game is going to be a focus of the Packers this week and due to Coleman scoring so much last week his price is too much heading into this matchup.
Adams had a rough start to the year missing time with an injury. He has looked good as the season has gone on, and he is Rodgers’s favorite target to throw the ball to. The 49ers have a really good passing defense, but Adams is an elite talent at WR and Rodgers is a top tier QB throwing the ball to him. Adams has been targeted at least 10 times in the last 4 games, and against the 49ers earlier in the year he caught 7 passes for 43 yards and a touchdown. Adams is getting the ball fed to him constantly and with the season on the line, the Packers are going to rely on him to keep the game close with his elite talent and explosive plays. Although his cost is high he is one of the best plays at WR this week.
Davis has fallen behind AJ Brown for the Titans top pass catcher. Davis struggled with an injury during the season and during that Brown took over as the primary target for Tannehill. If the Titans must chase points and put the game on Tannehill’s shoulders Davis could still struggle to see the ball. Although he scored last week, he has only seen 2 targets in both of the Titans’ playoff games. The volume is not there for Davis and I would stay away from him this week especially against the KC secondary.
The Titans are going to be underdogs heading into KC this weekend. The Chiefs will most likely put the Titans into situations where Tannehill is going to have to throw the ball a lot to keep the Titans in the game. He has not had to throw the ball very much through the first 2 games of the playoffs and has not gone over 100 yards passing yet. Even though he has not had to throw much he has still taken care of the ball and been pretty efficient when throwing the ball. During the season Tannehill was averaging over 20 points a game and although it has dropped off in the postseason he still has the skill set to go out there and take the 6th seed through to the championship. In his earlier meeting with the Chiefs this year Tannehill threw 2 TDs and added nearly 40 rushing yards. I expect that Tannehill is going to be the spark that the Titans need to keep the game close this week and could be a valuable play in DFS.
Rodgers has been leading the Packers quietly to the conference championship. The Packers are headed into San Francisco to try and make it back to the Superbowl. In the first meeting between these teams, this season Rodgers was held to 104 yards and 1 touchdown. The 49ers have arguably the best D-Line in the NFL right now that Rodgers will have to face. This is going to be strength versus strength matchup though as the Packers have had one of the best lines this season, particularly at pass blocking. I suspect that the Packers are going to have a hard time finding many gaps in the defense this weekend and I would be worried about starting Rodgers over the other options this week.
Kelce has continued to show why he is the best TE in football during the playoffs scoring 3 TDs last week and going for 134 yards. He is extremely talented and one of the top targets for Mahomes in the Chiefs offense. Mahomes will be looking for Kelce a lot in this week’s game and I expect that on the big stage he is going to go out and perform at a high level. Even in the Chief’s loss to the Titans earlier this year, Kelce was able to get 75 yards and a TD against this Titans team. Kelce is a good route runner and one of the best Red Zone targets for this offense.
The Packers are headed into a tough matchup this weekend. The 49ers have a tough defense and Rodgers could struggle to find time to get the ball downfield. The 49ers also have had some great play from their LB core the last half of the season and held the Packers to only 4 TE targets in their first meeting. Even though Graham has had a solid season and looked good last week the matchup would move me to pick another option at the position.
NFL Conference Championship DFS Start/SitTweet