Joseph Benavidez vs Deiveson Figueiredo
3rd shot at Flyweight gold for Joseph “Joey 2xs” Benavidez in Norfolk, VA this Saturday night for the vacant UFC Flyweight (125lbs.) strap against someone other than Dominick Cruz and Demetrius “Mighty Mouse” Johnson, 2 of the greats as is Benavidez. With a 28-5 record his only losses have come to Dom Cruz (0-2), Mighty Mouse (0-2), and Sergio Pettis.
Opposite is Deiveson Figueiredo (17-1)
“God of War” started out 10-0 in the UFC and still holds an impressive (17-1) record with his only loss coming against Jussier Formiga (23-6).
Figueiredo was getting peppered in his last matchup against Tim Elliott (16-10-1) in the 1st 2 mins, Elliott threw a kick to the knee of his opponent and then shot in for a take-down. Elliott left his neck exposed during the shot, Figueiredo immediately locked up a guillotine choke and forced a quick tap from Elliott. The fight came to a close at the 3:08 mark
Now these 2 were supposed to have a go back at the infamous CANCELLED UFC 233 event in Anaheim, CA. If this was last January I think I’d side Benavidez at -140 but Figueiredo with 14 of his combined 17 matchups being finishes? I can’t see a route to bet against him in this spot (Before weight miss), most recognizable for his red war stripe he’s made famous on Fight Nights. “God of War” is looking to minimize the distance between himself and Benavidez and close the show early.
Notable plays worth taking a flyer on in this matchup:
Deiveson Figueiredo wins:
in Round 1 +1000
in Round 2 +1225
in Round 3 +1625
With the amount of pressure on these guys to keep the flyweight division relevant you’ve gotta expect fireworks early, I mentioned I couldn’t find a route to bet against Figueiredo after the weight issue, after that face off, I’m still flying with the Brazilian. I believe the right lean is to bet Deiveson Figueiredo,1st 3 round stoppage 🔒 it up.
Felicia Spencer vs Zarah Fairn (Co main)
Women’s featherweight clash here drawing a lot of eyebrows as a questionable co main event. Obviously the black belt Jiu Jitsu practitioner Felicia Spencer’s a heavy favorite -810, I’m going to go with the dog play here. 67% finish rate for Fairn as a +640 dog, I like the idea of betting a finish here her overhand right is powerful when she gets behind it.
Round 1: +2250
Round 2: +2550
Round 3: +3500
Magomed Ankalaev vs Ion Cutelaba
Ankalaev a forward pressing striker out of Makhachkala, Russia coming off of an impressive 3rd round knockout via Front Kick vs an always dangerous Dalcha Lungiambula.
Ankalaev will need to weather the storm that is Ion Cutelaba early on, Cutelaba known for his over the top weigh in face offs. Ion presses forward and presses early, I expect them both to meet in the middle of the octagon and heavy leather to be thrown. This will play into Cutelaba’s favor, he does have a tendency to gas and fight in spurts after the 1st round. Coming off of an impressive performance “The Hulk” turned the lights out on the hype machine that was Khalil Roundtree (1st round TKO) at UFC Copenhagen back in September. (I gotta admit I had money on Roundtree in that matchup, Cutelaba made me a believer.)
I’d steer clear of this 205lb clash betting wise but with Cutelaba pressure, and Ankalaev’s willingness to engage in a brawl id favor the +185 Cutelaba 1st round stoppage to propel the “The Hulk” into top 10 contingency.
Take the dog if you’ve gotta bet it:
Megan Anderson vs Norma Dumont
This 145lb women’s flyweight matchup in my eyes is a 🔒 play, at 6’ tall and a 72” reach Anderson possesses a legitimate advantage size wise, the former Invicta FC standout is coming off of an impressive triangle choke off of her back against Zarah Fairn at UFC 243 in Melbourne, Australia.
Norma “The Immortal” Dumont is riding a 4 fight win streak looking to take the UFC by storm in her debut by knocking off a fast riser in Anderson. 4-0 professionally she’s going to need to get this fight to the mat quickly, with Anderson’s range and pressure, with 2 wins via submission (Both rear naked chokes) it looks as the Brazilians best way to close the show.
Again as I mentioned, 🔒 Anderson up at -240 the Melbourne native should be considered a shoe in considering the matchup.
Grant Dawson vs Darrick Minner
Minner is making his UFC Debut in a fight that’s been spoken of on the regional circuit out of Nebraska for years. Earlier in the week Dawson went as far to say “He’s not UFC caliber” “Every time he’s given a big opportunity, he comes up short. He came up short in LFA. He came up short on the Contender Series. Saturday night, he’s going to come up short again.” The 2 obviously do not have a liking for 1 another.
Minner coming off a triangle choke loss to Herbert Burns on Dana Whites Contender Series is getting a shot, I’m hoping this doesn’t turn into a clinch, grinding the side of octagon type of battle but that’s what I’m expecting. Minner is a grinder he possesses a gritty style almost similar to a Darren Elkins, I wouldn’t count him out. Dawson has an impressive rear named choke victory over an undefeated Mike Trizano in Rochester, NY.
Dawson reminds me a bit of Sage Northcutt with some of his tendencies, he goes for, he mixes his game up well not only can he strike and deliver good ground and pound. Dawson implements chokes, armbars, with 15 combined amateur and professional victories by submission I like that to be his route to victory if he can stop Minner.
In a grind it out type of battle I like Dawson via decision +555 (Bovada) I don’t think either fighter gets finished even though the odds would suggest otherwise.
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