How was Christian McCaffrey’s 2019 fantasy football season?
Looking back to the 2019 season, Christian McCaffrey was projected to be a top three running back in fantasy football. His ADP (average draft position) varied between 1.01 and 1.06 in standard drafts (source of ADP info Fantasyfootballcalculator). Saquon Barkley and Ezekiel Elliott were both ranked higher than McCaffrey in 2019 and many players will have drafted Barkley as their 1.01.
Moving into 2020, McCaffrey is the clear number one pick in most drafts. Barkley’s ADP is 1.02 and Elliott has experienced a big slip; dropping down to 1.09 in some drafts.
No one could have predicted the level of success that McCaffrey achieved last season. He had a breakout season and laid claim to the title of “best running back in the NFL”. The superstar finished 2019 with an insane combined 2,392 yards from scrimmage and 19 total touchdowns; consisting of 1,387 rushing yards and 1,005 receiving yards,
For the purpose of standard leagues, this is an amazing season; but in Point Per Reception (PPR) leagues, this was an outstanding season. In PPR leagues, McCaffrey dominated; catching 116 passes – the epitome of a dual-threat player. In the end, these efforts earned McCaffrey the 2019 NFL Fantasy Player of The Year award at the NFL Honors show.
What to expect from Christian McCaffrey in 2020
It’s viable that McCaffrey will see a drop in production for the Carolina Panthers after his stellar 2019 campaign. To provide the Panthers with a more balanced and functional offense, Carolina signed the established talent of Teddy Bridgewater at quarterback to replace the inexperienced Kyle Allen.
The emergence of DJ Moore and the signing of deep threat Robby Anderson signal that the Panthers want to stretch the field more. Many of the short check down passes could be lost to deep shots to utilize the talented WR corps. This could serve as a detriment to McCaffrey’s receptions and yards in the receiving game, where his sheer volume elevated him over everybody else.
Taking into account the above, the explosive McCaffrey has the potential to rush for 1,200 to 1,300 yards with 10 rushing TD’s. Regardless of a target drop, he is a genuine threat in the passing game and should add around 600 to 700 yards receiving and four receiving TD’s.
As a conservative estimate, let’s give McCaffrey a floor of 1,800 yards from scrimmage and a ceiling of just over 2,000 yards. With no other viable goal line back on the roster, McCaffrey should be able to hit similar TD numbers to 2019; a sensible estimate would be 14 TD’s total.
Where to draft Christian McCaffrey
Don’t overthink this – drafting McCaffrey at number one in your draft is a sure fire win.
Even considering the potential drop in targets, it’s tough to envisage another player achieving the combined stats of the Panthers star.
You may be worrying about volume with a new and improved offense, but this should be no problem in 2020. McCaffrey played over 90% of the offensive snaps for the Panthers. He was rarely off the field in 2019 and with no true threat to his workload at running back, he has consistent RB1 value.
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